Will obergefell be overturned

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[7] However, notably, no other justice joined this opinion. According to the American Bar Association, “respect for precedents gives the law consistency and makes interpretations of the law more predictable—and less seemingly random.” [5] Of course, this does not necessarily mean the Supreme Court will or should always follow this doctrine.

I've never been happier to lose.

Still, Carl Esbeck, an expert on religious liberty at the University of Missouri School of Law, said there’s "not a chance" the court is going to overturn Obergefell.

That’s in part because Congress passed a law in 2022 guaranteeing federal recognition of same-sex marriage rights, he said.

"It would be a useless act to overturn Obergefell," Esbeck said.

In the majority’s view, there were no concrete reliance interests in Roe and Casey because abortion is an “unplanned” activity. [4] While these resolutions have no legal power, they may signal a resurging political effort to overturn the 2015 case. [11]. However, some justices are not as ideologically opposed to constitutional protections for same-sex marriage as it would seem.

[12] This reasoning would not apply to Obergefell since there is hardly any debate or inconsistency with how to legally define “same-sex marriage,” unlike “undue burden.” Thus, Obergefell can be applied predictably and consistently. Hodges is real, marriage equality is not lost yet. Since then, hundreds of thousands of same-sex couples have relied on Obergefell for their marriages to become officially recognized by their respective states and for the benefits that come along with having a marriage license.

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This reel captures our perspective during the events of August 13, 2025 — a snapshot of the conversation as it was happening.

Kim Davis refused same-sex marriage license in 2015. Hodges would ultimately fail. [16] Gorsuch justified this ruling by explaining that discriminating against someone for their sexual orientation or transgender status is inherently the same as discriminating based on their sex (which is prohibited by Title VII).

Roberts also joined the majority in Bostock and although he was a dissenter in Obergefell, has since seemingly accepted the case as an established precedent based on his joining of the majority opinion in Pavan v. [17] In other words, even if Justice Gorsuch opposes the use of the Due Process Clause to justify same-sex marriage, he may establish a new precedent that still rules state laws banning same-sex marriage as unconstitutional, but this time primarily relying on the EPC and his reasoning in Bostock.
This would not be possible without Chief Justice Roberts, who would provide a crucial fifth vote to secure a majority.

Skrmetti, which is a case that seeks to apply Bostock’s logic to transgender status via the EPC. [19] Although same-sex marriage will likely persevere thanks to the 2022 Respect for Marriage Act, which forces states to recognize legally performed same-sex marriages, it is still important to acknowledge the role a challenge to Obergefell plays in the stability of the judicial system and the future of LGBTQ rights.
Bibliography
[1] Obergefell v.

[8] This reasoning would likely still apply to Obergefell, as the dissents on that case made similar arguments. The most heavily criticized aspect of Obergefell by its opposition is its reliance on substantive due process to confer a “right to privacy” for same-sex couples to marry.

It Requires a Supreme Court Decision

‍While Congress could repeal the Respect for Marriage Act, that alone would not invalidate same-sex marriage rights, as those are currently protected under the Constitution.

For same-sex marriage to be outlawed, the Supreme Court would need to issue a ruling overturning Obergefell.

This would remove the universal right to same-sex marriage, but it would not ban it outright.
Instead, it would revert the issue back to the states, creating a patchwork of marriage laws.

What About Windsor?

If Obergefell is overturned but Windsor remains, same-sex marriage would still be recognized at the federal level, even if states banned it.
To completely strip same-sex couples of marriage rights, the Supreme Court would need to overturn Windsor as well—a move that seems less likely, given this administration’s focus on state rights (as seen in abortion laws).

‍A Return to Patchwork Marriage Laws

State-Level Bans and Protections

35 states currently have constitutional amendments or statutes banning same-sex marriage.
The remaining 15 states either have laws protecting same-sex marriage or lack explicit restrictions.
Example: Ohio’s 2004 constitutional amendment defines marriage as between one man and one woman but does not define “man” or “woman.”

If Obergefell is overturned, the U.S.

might return to a system like 2012-2015, where some states recognize same-sex marriage while others do not.
‍Federal vs. Two justices in particular, Justice Gorsuch and Chief Justice Roberts, stand out as notable key votes.
In 2020, Justice Gorsuch wrote the majority opinion in the landmark case Bostock v.

5) Concrete reliance: the court had to consider whether overturning Roe and Casey would “upend substantial reliance interests,” which the majority defines as “where planning of great precision is most obviously a necessity.” [14] In other words, are there people who would substantially rely on the precedents to make planned decisions?

Smith (2017), which ruled that state laws preventing same-sex couples from appearing on their child’s birth certificate are unconstitutional via Obergefell [18]
Conclusion:
Based on the evidence presented, I believe that a challenge to overturn Obergefell v.
A recent example that caused the most alarm for Obergefell’s safety was the overturning of Roe v.